Covid-19 has undeniably had an impact on public finances. How high, what are the consequences and how can we return to a balanced budget?
The federal government's accounts before the pandemic.
The economic effects of the lockdowns and other health measures were harsh on the populations of the countries concerned. The vast majority of states quickly activated support plans to help businesses.
It was necessary to avoid at all costs the combination of a hospital crisis and an economic crisis.
And in Switzerland?
A state's fiscal policies are often the source of intense debate. For or against, the previous dynamic of curbing Switzerland's debt has provided the authorities with the necessary funds to inject the resources needed to stem the financial effects on societies and the population.
What is the impact on the country's finances?
In a word: massive. The numbers are dizzying. Analysts estimate the expenditure at 30 billion francs. Some predict less, given that recent easing measures are supporting the economy; others predict more as uncertainty reigns around the Delta variant and its potential effects on a resurgence of cases and the return of restrictive measures.
Today, according to a recent study conducted by PWC, the cantons are suffering a 23% drop in tax revenues, while the cities are experiencing a 17% decline. This, compared to 2020.
This will influence the debt, with an increase of around 36% for the cantons and 72% for the cities by 2023.
How is the aid distributed?
We were referring to EUR 30 billion, but in reality, the cumulative expenditure will be more than double, bearing in mind that a large part of the aid has taken the form of loans from companies. These loans are in principle repayable. In any case, the Confederation is counting on the effective repayment of the vast majority of loans.
This is followed by support for companies through the RHT (reduction of working hours) measure. In particular, this aid has enabled thousands of workers not to be hit hard by corrective cost management measures in the face of their employers' declining turnover. The budget for this support is CHF 26 billion.
After that, the APG (compensation for loss of earnings). CHF 3 billion.
Finally, a grouping of various expenses including health, aid to culture, aid to transport players, etc.
Impact on households?
Morally, of course. And morale is impacting the economy. For others, the effects are much more serious with the loss of a loved one.
Economically, however, the blow was less severe than expected. The decline in tax revenues is a testament to this, with a reduction of less than 2% expected by the authorities. Nor has the unemployment rate exploded as feared.
The aid measures have achieved their objective, namely, to protect businesses and, through them, workers.
Towards a tax hike?
That does not seem to be on the agenda. At least, this is not openly advocated by the country's politicians. Is it a communication calculation that allows us to wait for a more favourable moment for unpopular announcements? Is it a true belief that we should not saw off the branch on which we are sitting? It's too early to tell.
To date, the solution of a relative increase in debt with amortization over time seems to have won the majority of votes. Of course, it all depends on how the new school year goes. Current projections are reassuring, but Switzerland is not living in a bubble. More than a long-term stabilization of cases at the local level, the trends in our neighbouring countries should also be closely monitored.
And you? And your projects?
The old adage still stands: 'Life goes on'. Our plans come true, our dreams come true, and sometimes we need a helping hand.
Don't hesitate to ask a Milenia advisor about your loan application. You will certainly be able to offer you a responsible and attractive loan. To the extent of your means, quickly, simply and with confidence.
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Until then, take good care of yourself and your loved ones. And let's keep our fingers crossed for better days when the school year starts!